Who Wins the 2009 PGA at Hazeltine?

I was hoping that you would know, because I don't.

I have some good guesses about who won't win, and that is anybody who is not in the Top 25 in driving distance. As you surely know, having a long iron or a hybrid in your hand repeatedly during a round is a recipe for high scoring. It is simply a matter of playing the percentages. You are going to hit more greens and make more birdies coming in with a 7 iron than you will with a 4 iron. It is a rare breed of golfer that can dial in long irons, and it is even a rarer breed that can flight them high enough and with enough spin to stop them on greens stimping out at 12. Can you think of the two golfers world renown for that very thing? That's right...Tiger and Jack. And the last I checked, Jack is sitting this one out, which leaves Tiger on his own to lay waste to the course.

But don't get me wrong, I am not predicting a Tiger romp by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, if he doesn't put a steering wheel on his driver this week, he is going to be in a world of hurt. This is not the Houston Open at Redstone, where you can block a tee ball 20 yards and STILL be in the middle of the fairway. This is the beast known as Hazeltine, and woe be to any mortal who strays from the fairway. Missing a fairway is not a guaranty of shooting a trunk slammer as a general rule, but missing a fairway and having to punch out on a 520 yard Par 4 will definitely put a lump in your throat (read: pants). And how about attacking a course from the jungle when the shortest Par 5 is a measly 572 yards? Let me repeat that for effect: the shortest Par 5 is 572 yards. That is usually the longest Par 5 you will see on most courses. So just imagine how the Tour players, as great as they may be, are going to fare if they are not long and straight. Just where exactly the birdie holes are on Hazeltine is a mystery to me.

My premonition is that the short hitters will be lucky to make the cut, and everybody else will do well to hang around on the second page of the leaderboard while boomers play a different golf course. That is why I think you have to start with guys like El Pato, Tiger, Stenson, Scott, Ogilvy, Mickelson, Mahan, insert your favorite bomber here, as your control group of potential winners. It would take an inspired act of the Prime Mover to help guys like Justin Leonard or Tim Clark make a dent in the sadistically long bogey maze that is Hazeltine. In 2002, only 8 guys finished under par, the year in which Rich Beem suprised the golfing world with his fine play, as well as his dance moves. I know, I know, I can hear you laughing, but a guy like Rich Beem has no shot this year. The course is over 300 yards longer, which may not sound like too much, but just picture strolling onto a long Par 3 at your home course, pulling a 5 iron to hit the 190 yard tee shot, and then being confronted by a hiding course designer who says, "No sir, it's not a 5 iron anymore. The hole is now 210. Enjoy." Do that for about 13 more holes until you just move tee boxes, or give up and go find the responsible party and toss him into a pond heaving with duck related byproducts.

And that is pretty much the rub, folks. The bombers have a huge edge, and if they can't keep it in the short grass, then find the straightest hitter who is in the next category of long. That would be Steve Stricker for all of you who have eyes powerful enough to look at 8 font statistics all day. So pencil me in for any of the above named players, including Stricker and maybe a guy like Sean O'Hair. The field is loaded with marquee players so there should be no shortage of high voltage golf. And if we're lucky, there might be a good streaker to liven up the place. One can only hope! No matter who wins, let's enjoy our last Major of the year and give it the attention it deserves. I want all of you calling in sick, and for those who must go to work, make sure that you have the Golf Channel or Yahoo Leaderboard scroll up at all times. If your bosses gives you any grief, send them to me. I'll have them cut off at the knees in short order, and you can triumphantly return to what really matters in life: Golf.

And remember, if it isn't Gofl Blog, then it's just plain gofl.